JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Eyes Surge to $170K if This Support Holds

Bitcoin nears key support around $94K as analysts highlight that the current 25% correction matches past bull-market patterns while technical charts signal continued strength.
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Bitcoin
Bitcoin

Key Points

Bitcoin’s drop toward the $94K support level aligns with historical bull-market pullbacks and remains within a strong long-term structure.
Analysts say the 20% to 30% corrections match patterns seen in previous cycles and often lead to renewed upside momentum.
Short-term pressure may continue toward the $92K CME gap, but institutions and on-chain indicators still signal a resilient market.

Bitcoin’s latest correction is approaching a critical phase as price action gravitates toward major support in the mid-$90,000 region.

Meanwhile, the prominent financial institution JPMorgan has maintained that the market structure remains intact, despite the asset trading at around $96,163, experiencing a 23.8% decline from its all-time high of $126,220 set on October 6. The bank argued that support near $94,000 continues to anchor the broader uptrend, backed by resilient demand and firm on-chain fundamentals.

Bitcoin Corrections Mirror Previous Bull Cycles

Market analysts note a familiar pattern emerging during the current move. Rajat Soni, CFA, said that a 23.8% retracement aligns with the type of corrections that appeared repeatedly during previous bull cycles.

Bitcoin recorded drops of 29%, 33%, 36%, and several 38% declines during the 2016–2017 rally. Each downturn, according to historical data, acted as a mid-cycle reset rather than a shift into bearish territory.

Bitcoin Corrections During the 2016/201 Cycle

Soni argued that the present retracement mirrors that trend, suggesting long-term participants may treat the downturn as a strategic accumulation phase. His position aligns with the view held by JPMorgan, which projects a target of $170,000.

Despite short-term pressure, the broader data indicate a market that continues to absorb volatility while maintaining its upward trajectory.

MACD Signals Align With Prior Bottoming Zones

Meanwhile, additional technical signals add context to the current decline. A widely circulated chart from Merlijn The trader suggests that steep drawdowns have followed every significant upward extension in the current cycle.

The corrections ranged between 18% and 30% throughout 2023, 2024, and 2025. Notably, each decline coincided with a bottoming signal on the weekly MACD.

According to Merlijn, the same alignment is emerging again. The chart labels the ongoing downturn as “–20% (So Far),” placing it squarely within the familiar pattern of volatility that historically preceded new advances.

He framed the decline as a standard flush rather than the early stages of a longer reversal. The confluence of MACD behavior, repeated correction sizes, and persistent higher-time-frame strength reinforces the argument that the market remains in a constructive phase.

Further Bitcoin Downside?

Remarkably, the short-term focus has shifted toward the unfilled CME gap, which is around $92,000, as highlighted in a chart shared by analyst Ted Pillows.

The analysis maps a sequence of broken support blocks between $98,000 and $111,000, signaling where buyers failed to defend earlier levels. Each lost support adds weight to the expectation that Bitcoin may need to tap the liquidity sitting near the gap before attempting a recovery.

Below those regions sit major demand zones between $94K and $88K, which reinforce the importance of the area Bitcoin is now approaching. Traders often view CME gaps as price magnets, especially in periods of momentum-driven corrections.

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Brenda Kanana

Brenda is a writer with three years of experience specializing in cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence and emerging technologies. She graduated from the University of Mombasa with a degree in Psychology. She has worked at CryptoPolitan and Blockchain Reporter.
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