As asset managers explore XRP ETFs, new projections suggest these products could absorb as much as 4% of the token’s circulating supply. If realized, this shift would mark a major turning point for XRP, potentially altering its supply dynamics, liquidity profile, and long-term market valuation.
Institutional Demand Could Reshape XRP Supply Dynamics
According to a projection, XRP ETFs could absorb up to 4% of the token’s circulating supply by May 2026. Interestingly, this optimistic projection is pinned on the success of XRP ETFs since their debut in November 2025.
Currently, XRP ETFs have attracted over $1 billion in AuM in just 50 days, locking 746 million XRP, which represents 1.14% of the token’s supply.
Meanwhile, since its launch, XRP ETFs have experienced only one day of zero inflows and have yet to record a single outflow, maintaining one of the longest no-outflow streaks in the crypto ETF sector.
Furthermore, with an average daily inflow rate of $27.7, XRP ETFs could attract $5 billion by mid-May 2026, potentially locking in 2.6 billion XRP, which represents 4% of the token’s total supply. Another factor reinforcing the projection is that XRP’s exchange balance plummeted by 58% to 1.7 billion tokens by 2025.
Funds Locked Across XRP ETFs
According to SoSoValue data, there are currently five active spot XRP ETF products, with 746 million tokens locked across them.
As of December 31, 2025, Canary Capital, the first XRP ETF to launch on November 13, 2025, manages $319 million, which is 0.19% of the XRP share, the largest among the five funds.
Following is 21Shares, which holds 0.22% of XRP shares and has a net asset value of $246.37 million. Next is Bitwise, which also holds 0.22% but has a slightly lower net asset of $240.13 million.
The fourth is Grayscale, which holds 0.20% of the share with a net asset of $223.40 million, and the last is Franklin Templeton, with 0.19% and $215.20 million in net assets. Meanwhile, SoSoValue data shows that XRP ETFs have generated cumulative inflows of $1.17 billion as of December 31, 2025, with total net assets of $1.24 billion.
XRP Price Action: Can ETF Demand Drive a Breakout?
Meanwhile, XRP has continued to see institutional interest despite weak price action and broader market volatility. Interestingly, XRP has crashed 50% from its July 2025 peak at $3.66 to trading around $1.87.
A close look at XRP’s price performance reveals that the token is currently in a consolidation phase; as a result, traders are closely monitoring key resistance and support levels. However, market experts are calling for a bullish projection for XRP in 2026, and one of them is Standard Chartered, which speculates a surge to $8 for the token.
Interestingly, the institution had pinned its bullish projection on the success of XRP ETFs. Therefore, the possibility of ETFs absorbing 4% of XRP’s circulating supply could serve as the catalyst needed to push it to new highs.
Temitope Olajide
