Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX and one of the most influential voices in the crypto macro landscape, has outlined fresh global economic triggers that he believes could position Bitcoin (BTC) for a major rally. His latest analysis comes as global markets confront heightened volatility, deepening currency imbalances, and shifting monetary policy signals across major economies.
Arthur Hayes Links Potential BTC Surge to Fed Intervention in Japan
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, in a new blog post, speculated that Bitcoin could pump if the U.S. Federal Reserve is compelled to expand its balance sheet to help stabilize Japan’s increasingly unstable bond market.
Japan has faced mounting economic pressure, with the yen sliding to record lows against the dollar and government bond yields rising sharply, reflecting investor concerns over the government’s ability to defend its currency and rein in deficit spending.
Hayes cautions that a deeper crisis could unfold if Japanese investors begin selling U.S. Treasuries in favor of higher-yielding Japanese bonds. Such a shift could unsettle U.S. markets, potentially prompting the Fed to intervene.
According to Hayes, the Fed could collaborate with major financial institutions, such as JPMorgan, to create additional dollar reserves. It may also exchange dollars for yen and use them to buy Japanese government bonds, driving yields lower and stabilizing the system.
He explains that these actions would expand the Fed’s foreign currency assets while injecting fresh liquidity into the global financial system. Historically, such liquidity expansions have triggered strong rallies in digital assets, as increased money supply weakens fiat currencies and boosts demand for Bitcoin.
Japan’s Growing Crypto Push Amid Financial Strain
Amid its financial challenges, Japan is considering a significant strategic move: approving the nation’s first crypto exchange-traded fund. Regulatory discussions are underway, and the first round of listings is expected as early as 2028.
Notably, analysts estimate that once approved for trading, Japanese crypto ETFs could reach a valuation of $6.4 billion, marking a major milestone for the country’s digital asset market.
This push reflects Japan’s broader effort to modernize its financial landscape while seeking alternative growth drivers amid economic stress. The potential ETF rollout signals rising institutional interest and could strengthen Japan’s position within the global crypto ecosystem.
BTC Price Action and Predictions for 2026
Bitcoin continues to trade within a tight consolidation zone, struggling once again to break above $100,000. It is currently trading near $89,000, up 0.89% over the past 24 hours. Despite the modest recovery, Bitcoin has yet to reclaim the levels lost during the October 2025 market crash.
However, optimism remains high among top crypto executives. Arthur Hayes had already predicted in 2025 that BTC could surge to $200,000 by 2026 if the Federal Reserve injects fresh liquidity into global markets. Similarly, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has speculated that Bitcoin could rise to $180,000 in the 2026 cycle.
Evans Kelvin
The CoinRemark Team
