Bitcoin (BTC) could close October in the red for the first time in seven years, a psychological blow to traders who have long viewed the month as a launchpad for year-end rallies. The world’s largest cryptocurrency has slipped about 3.3% in October, snapping its six-year “Uptober” winning streak and sparking debate over whether history is about to repeat 2018’s brutal drop.
Last time October closed red for Bitcoin, November saw a 36.57% drop.
Should we be worried this time? pic.twitter.com/WCm6FZuOZa
— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) October 31, 2025
For years, October has been a golden month for Bitcoin. Since 2013, it’s produced gains in eight out of ten years, earning the nickname “Uptober.” That run now ends. In a post on X, crypto analyst Jelle noted, “Last day of the month—we need a strong green candle today, or we’ll see our first red October close in 7 years.”
Grey box once again getting defended – but choppy conditions clearly aren't over yet.
Last day of the month – we need a strong green candle today or we'll see our first red October close in 7 years.
Taking the fam to the zoo today – see you guys around.#Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/QJgql2rO1N
— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) October 31, 2025
“Momentum faded, confidence shaken,” said TraderAAG.
Market data indicate that short-term traders dominated the sell-off, while long-term holders remained firm. But not everyone sees the red close as a warning.
“A weak October doesn’t dictate November,” said analyst Timothy Peterson, noting that there’s “no direct correlation between months” in Bitcoin’s history. Still, the last time Bitcoin ended October in the red, in 2018, November followed with a 36.5% collapse. That memory lingers.
Cautious Institutions and Global Jitters Weigh on Bitcoin
The correction wasn’t just psychological; macroeconomic factors also played a significant role in driving the decline.
For context, the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point cut, coupled with a hawkish tone on future policy, cooled sentiment across risk assets. Tensions from the Trump–Xi trade meeting added further uncertainty, pushing investors to de-risk positions.
Institutional demand also slowed. Strategy Inc., one of Bitcoin’s biggest corporate holders, added just 778 BTC in October, down 78% from September. ETF inflows, while still positive, weakened as inflation held at 3% and hiring data remained flat. Altcoins mirrored the caution: Ethereum fell below $3,800, Solana slipped under $187, and total market capitalization erased nearly $200 billion.
November’s Redemption Arc
If history rhymes, Bitcoin’s best month could still be ahead. November has averaged 46% gains across the past 12 years, often driving Q4 to become Bitcoin’s strongest quarter. The past two years alone saw increases of 57% and 48%, while 2017 delivered a staggering 480% surge.
Analyst Rekt Capital says the next major test lies at $114,500, and reclaiming it could reignite momentum toward $119,000. Michaël van de Poppe identifies $112,000 as the breakout line for a new all-time high. A rejection, however, risks a retest of $103,000.
Market veterans remain divided. Peter Brandt admitted to holding long-term Bitcoin while shorting BTC futures on a “megaphone” setup. Meanwhile, Daan Crypto Trades called November and December “eventful months” that historically mark cycle tops or bottoms.
Do others besides me find it a bit awkward intellectually/emotionally when you hold contrary positions in accounts designed to trade different systems/time frames?
As an investor I have owned Bitcoin for years
As a swing trader I am now short $BTC futures based on megaphone pic.twitter.com/bZZDwbypSh— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) October 30, 2025
Others, like Merlijn the Trader, remain unwaveringly bullish. He calls Q4 Bitcoin’s “favorite quarter,” citing 2024’s 80% surge. As Coinremark recently reported, Strategy founder Michael Saylor views the pullback as temporary, with a $150,000 target maintained by late 2025.
The CoinRemark Team
Brenda Kanana
