XRP has recorded its largest realized loss event in over three years, sparking renewed debate among traders and analysts. While such spikes often reflect intense fear and capitulation, historical data suggests they can also precede major bullish reversals.
XRP Sees Largest On-Chain Realized Loss Spike Since 2022
Analytics firm Santiment has revealed that XRP has experienced its largest on-chain realized loss spike since 2022, increasing by over $908 million in the past week. The firm disclosed this in a recent post on X, noting that the last time such a spike occurred, XRP recorded approximately $1.93 billion in realized losses.
Shortly after that 2022 capitulation event, XRP surged by 114% over the following eight months. According to Santiment, historically large spikes in realized losses often mark market bottoms. Further, extreme fear tends to peak before price does, and once weak hands have exited, selling pressure diminishes significantly.
Thus, with fewer sellers left to push prices lower, even modest buying pressure can drive a strong rebound. However, Santiment cautioned that while this setup increases the probability of a bullish reversal, it does not guarantee an immediate rally.
ETF Flows Stall as Broader Market Records Outflows
Amid on-chain turbulence, fund flow data paints a mixed picture. According to SoSoValue, XRP ETF products have remained at a standstill, recording no net flows as of February 20, 2026, a sign of cautious institutional participation.
Meanwhile, CoinShares reported that XRP-focused funds recorded minor inflows of $3.5 million. This came despite digital asset investment products suffering a fifth consecutive week of outflows, totaling $288 million. The divergence suggests selective accumulation in the token even as broader crypto sentiment remains fragile.
Analysts Predict Major Upside For XRP
According to CoinMarketCap, XRP is down 1.4% to around $1.37 and ranks fourth in the crypto market by market capitalization. Despite the short-term dip, several market commentators remain optimistic.
Crypto market expert EGRAG CRYPTO backed Santiment’s bullish thesis in a recent X post, comparing XRP’s current trajectory to its 2022 cycle. He suggested that if the token mirrors its previous pattern, it could rally by as much as 2.8x from current levels.
Another analyst, CryptoBull, projected even more aggressive targets. In a recent X post, he claimed the token could surge to $15 by March 2026 and potentially reach $70 by mid-May.
While such projections have energized parts of the XRP community, market observers caution that cryptocurrency markets remain highly volatile, and price forecasts, particularly ambitious ones, depend heavily on broader liquidity conditions and sustained buying momentum.
The CoinRemark Team
Evans Kelvin
