In today’s crypto news, blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant says Bitcoin may be approaching a major long-term buying opportunity despite ongoing market weakness. According to CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan, crypto markets historically move through several major shocks or phases during bear cycles before a final bottom forms.
The analyst believes Bitcoin has already experienced roughly two of those major capitulation phases. However, the market could still face one final shock before a stronger recovery begins. However, he believes that the weakness could present an opportunity. After the dust settles, the analyst sees Bitcoin and the broader crypto market trending much higher than current levels.
The report comes as Bitcoin trades at $76,600, marking a 30% drop YTD following weeks of volatility across crypto markets.
CryptoQuant Sees Familiar Bear Market Structure
According to the analysis, Bitcoin bear markets follow a recurring pattern. The first phase usually starts with a sharp correction that breaks bullish momentum. A second major selloff typically follows as investor confidence weakens further.
The final phase often produces the strongest capitulation event of the cycle. During these periods, panic selling increases sharply as weaker market participants exit positions. CryptoQuant stated that the current cycle still resembles previous Bitcoin corrections despite differences in timing and macroeconomic conditions.
The report also pointed to Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder SOPR indicator. The metric tracks whether short-term holders are selling Bitcoin at a profit or loss. Recent dips in Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder SOPR below the 1.0 level correspond to those bear market shocks or phases the analyst described.
The first major breakdown occurred around November 2025, when Bitcoin fell from above $100,000 toward the $80,000 range. The second major capitulation phase appeared in early 2026 as Bitcoin collapsed from roughly $92,000 to near $65,000, representing a drawdown of around 29%. In both cases, short-term holders sold aggressively at a loss, signaling panic and forced exits from weaker market participants. Crypto Dan now anticipates a third, and possibly most impactful, capitulation event.
Bitcoin Price Weakness May Present Major Opportunity
The warning arrives during a broader period of uncertainty for digital assets. Recent CoinRemark coverage showed more than $563 million in long crypto positions were liquidated during one of the largest deleveraging events since February. On-chain data also revealed retail Bitcoin participation on Binance recently fell to historic lows.
At the same time, inflation concerns and high interest rates continue pressuring risk assets globally.
Despite that weakness, CryptoQuant believes major opportunities often emerge during periods of extreme fear and market exhaustion. After the dust of panic selling from weaker holders clears, the mechanics driving the crypto market could push Bitcoin and the broader market higher. Thus, the report suggests long-term investors with the most conviction are usually those who benefit following such deep corrections.
Temitope Olajide
