On Friday, Grayscale Research revealed that prediction market Polymarket currently places the odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 at approximately 67%.
The legislation has become one of the most important crypto regulatory proposals in recent U.S. history. Grayscale described the bill as a potential end to years of lawsuits, overlapping oversight, and legal uncertainty that have shaped the digital asset industry.
🆕 Grayscale Research: @Polymarket has CLARITY at ~67% to pass in 2026.
A decade of reg-by-enforcement gets replaced with a clean SEC/CFTC split: investment contracts vs. digital commodities.
Next gate: Senate Banking markup before July recess.
Read the latest from @LowBeta on… pic.twitter.com/1gzIXMq5fN
— Grayscale (@Grayscale) May 8, 2026
At the same time, Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal recently stated at Consensus 2026 that he expects the CLARITY Act to pass by summer. Speaking during a panel discussion, Grewal argued that the banking system and regulators increasingly need to embrace the direction the market is already moving toward.
What the CLARITY Act Would Change
The CLARITY Act aims to establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States. One of its core objectives is to establish a clearer division of authority between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Under the proposed framework, digital assets classified as investment contracts would fall under SEC oversight. Conversely, decentralized digital commodities would largely fall under the jurisdiction of the CFTC.
That distinction has become one of the crypto industry’s biggest regulatory battles over the past several years. Many crypto firms have argued that the absence of clear definitions has created a hostile operating environment. In that atmosphere, companies often face enforcement actions before comprehensive rules are established.
For much of the industry, the CLARITY Act represents more than regulatory reform. It has been touted as the legal foundation necessary for long-term blockchain adoption and institutional participation within U.S. markets. Meanwhile, both the crypto industry and major financial institutions are increasingly positioning themselves for a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment.
Wall Street’s Blockchain Expansion Signals Growing Confidence
Recent CoinRemark coverage highlighted how major Wall Street firms are rapidly expanding their blockchain and crypto operations. JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Citibank, and Bank of America have recently posted dozens of crypto-related job openings. The roles advertised span compliance, infrastructure, custody, trading systems, and blockchain strategy. That hiring wave increasingly appears connected to expectations of future regulatory progress.
Large financial institutions rarely expand aggressively into sectors they believe will remain legally uncertain for the long term. As a result, Wall Street’s growing blockchain push suggests increasing confidence that the CLARITY Act would eventually provide the regulatory framework needed for deeper institutional participation.
According to Grayscale, the next major milestone for the legislation is the Senate Banking Committee markup before the July recess. The markup process will determine potential amendments, revisions, and whether the bill advances further through Congress.Â
While the bill still faces political and regulatory hurdles, the latest crypto news signals growing optimism about its passage. Wall Street’s accelerating blockchain expansion, Polymarket traders’ 67% bet, and Coinbase CLO’s comments reinforce the expected mid-year ETA.Â
Temitope Olajide
The CoinRemark Team
